Oct 14, 2008

Political pundit predicts huge seat advantage for House Democrats next month

Michigan House Democrats will build on their 58-52 seat lead next month, according to Bill Ballanger in the latest edition of Inside Michigan Politics.

Ballanger is the editor and publisher of IMP, and the former state lawmaker and respected political pundit is going even farther on predictions he made in January and June that the Democrats will retain control of the House by an astounding margin of 70-40. Ballanger said according to a quartet of micro polls commissioned by East Lansing based Practical Political Consulting, the decision by Grampy McSame to abandon Michigan will have a negative effect on some vulnerable Democratic seats.

The Republicans went from controlling the House for more than a decade and wining one of the largest majorities in many years in 2002 to suffering the worst back-to-back election cycles since the early 1940s that culminated with the loss of the House in November 2006.

The McSame pullout is also having some positive results in the race for the U.S. House. The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report upgraded the race between Democrat Gary Peters and Joe Knollenberg to "Tossup/Tilt Democratic." The race had previously been rated “Lean Republican.” A separate poll conducted by Grove-Insight for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) shows Peters ahead of Knollenberg 46-37 percent.

The race between Democrat Mark Schauer and extremist Tim Walberg is a toss up, and a recent poll by Myers Research & Strategic Services shows the Senate Minority Leader is leading Walberg by ten points, 46 to 36 percent.

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