Dingell has double digit lead over teabagger

In the first real poll in the race for 15th Congressional seat in the U.S. House, the dean of the House, Rep. John Dingell, D-Dearborn, has a very large 19 point lead over the challenger.

In a Detroit News/Local 4 WDIV poll, Dingell has a 49-30 percent lead over teabagger Rob Steele. Last month Steele paid for a push poll by the Republican polling and lobbying firm Public Opinion Strategies (PSO) that had him down by only nine points, by a count of 51-42. Like I said then, the real numbers were probably double that, and I was correct.

Still, Steele had to find a way to spin this huge deficit after shouting about his paid for 9 percent sham, and that is that “a congressman in office for 55 years is polling at less than 50 percent.” The fact is the number is 49.3 percent, and if Steele wants to spend his fortune made via the broken health care system on .7 percent I say go for it. His huge ego will not allow him to do otherwise.

On his Facebook page, Steele is also spinning it like this, “Only 42.5% would re-elect John Dingell. The people are clearly ready for new leadership.” I'm not sure where he got that number. The fact is the poll does have a warning sign for Dingell: “Nearly 61 percent of independent voters believe it's time for someone new in the 15th District.”

The good news independent voters are a minority in the 15th District. If there is new leadership in the 115th District, it will not be Steele, and it will not be this election.

Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nonpartisan newsletter. Put it in proper perspective when he said “the poll shows what he would have expected: the 15th District is "not as close as the Republicans would like you to believe.”

Steele can hold lots more $1,000 a plate fundraisers like he’s holding at an Ann Arbor Country club this week, and that’s just less money going to races where Republicans have a real chance.

Teabaggers causing problems at GOP convention

If you would have told me a few years ago that the Republican Party could move any farther to the tight I would have said that was impossible, but the extreme Astroturf Teabaggers are driving the party off the cliff.

Subscription only MIRS is reporting there may be some fireworks at the GOP state convention in Lansing on Aug. 28. Bill Ballanger, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics and one of the most respected pundits in the state, told MIRS that the convention “could be pandemonium.”

“The convention could be pandemonium,” he said in MIRS. “Who gets the lieutenant governor nomination and the secretary of state nomination could be on hold. It could spill over into Sunday."

MIRS also reported that the county conventions on Thursday were a zoo. It appears the same thing even happened in predominantly Republican Livingston County, despite attempts at spin to downplay it, and the tea baggers are causing a split.

Apparently, the state convention is supposed to be a one-day convention without caucus meetings, but MIRS is reporting that Gene Clem, a leading tea bagger, said “a movement is underfoot to have a pre-convention on Friday night” for teabagger delegates.

Clem told MIRS “the group may also take a straw poll at that Friday night caucus over what is expected to be the biggest convention battle -- the race for the party's nomination for Secretary of State.”

The problem is there have been no arrangements for a Friday night caucus.

For all the excessive media coverage of the predominantly racist and fringe tea baggers, they had very little effect in the primary election. But Ballanger said the tea baggers are making some noise at the convention. After all, the teabagger farce has always been the radical and millitant fringe of the Republican Party.

"I would say this is the biggest insurgent wave to hit the Michigan Republican Party since the Pat Robinson takeover in 1987," Ballenger said in MIRS. "I don't think we had a real showing by the Tea Party manifesting itself in the primaries.”

Hansen Clarke takes early lead

State Sen. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, has taken an early lead in his bid to replace Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick in Michigan’s 13th District seat in the U.S. Congress and restore some integrity to the seat.

Two of the state’s top political consultants and pundits, Mark Grebner of Practical Political Consulting and Bill Ballenger of Inside Michigan Politics, conducted a poll that gives Clarke a 27 to 19 percent lead over the incumbent and mother of former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, according to the Detroit Free Press.

Grebner told the Free Press the poll sample is too small to draw strong conclusions - only 137 responses that was done by automated phone call - but it gave the many people who have stepped up to volunteer for the Clarke campaign something else to celebrate Saturday at the grand opening of Clarke’s campaign headquarters.

Clarke served three terms in the House and two terms in the Senate. His Senate District represents most of the east side of Detroit, as does the 13th Congressional District. The 13th Congressional District also includes the Downriver communities of Lincoln Park, Ecorse, River Rouge and Wyandotte.

Clarke serves as the minority vice-chair of the Health Policy Committee and the Commerce and Tourism Committee. He also serves on the Judiciary Committee, the Banking and Financial Institutions Committee and the Government Operations and Reform Committee. Clarke grew up from humble beginnings in a working class neighborhood on Detroit's lower east side to attend an Ivy League university and become an attorney. He earned a Bachelor of Fine Arts degree at Cornell University, and he graduated from Georgetown University Law School. After he received his law degree he returned to Michigan to practice law. He was elected to his first of three terms in the Michigan House in 1990.

Democrats poised to take back traditional Democratic statewide offices

A poll conducted by Marketing Resource Group for Bill Ballanger’s Inside Michigan Politics of possible match-ups in the 2010 races for Michigan Secretary of State and Attorney General show Republican candidates having a slight lead over Democrats.

For secretary of state the poll showed Sen. Michelle McManus, R-Lake Leelanau, at 33 percent to 28 percent for House Majority Floor Leader Rep. Kathy Angerer, D-Dundee. There are three other GOP candidates for the position, and until I heard Angerer’s name mentioned, I thought Wayne State University law Professor Jocelyn Benson was the only Democratic candidate.

Benson has an excellent and impressive resume, and I think she would be a top-notch SOS, especially after six years of the most partisan SOS in Michigan history. That’s until I heard about Angerer possibly running. With zero publicity and not even a mention of her running, Angerer is just 5 percentage points behind with 37 percent undecided.

There are at least three other potential candidates for the GOP nomination, but none of them compare to Angerer or Benson. I wanted Angerer to run for Senate in the 17th District in 2010. My hometown should not have a Republicans representing it. Angerer unseated a Republican incumbent in 2004, and she can do it again.

I worked in Angerer’s House office as the world’s oldest intern. You can’t find anyone in Lansing who doesn’t respect her.

After Angerer unseated the incumbent Republican, she was a target of the Republicans in the GOP-controlled House for tow years, and Republicans refused to let her even get the simplest of resolutions passed. She spent those two years building the best constituent operation in the state and really learning the issues. In the meantime, the person she unseated spent those two years in the district campaigning and raising money. She won even bigger in 2006, along with the Democrats who took control of the House.

She has earned the respect of colleagues, opponents, staff on both sides of the aisle and House employees down to the janitorial staff. With her seat safe last November, Angerer campaigned for other House candidates, helping Democrats increase their lead by nine seats to give them 67 seats.

The same numbers played out in the poll for attorney general. Republican Bill Schuette edged out Sen. Gretchen Whitmer, D-East Lansing, 33 percent to 28 percent with 39 percent undecided. Whitmer, like Angerer, has not announced she is running. The poll did not include the other two Republicans; Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and Sen. Bruce Patterson. Bishop has been campaigning in the Senate by pandering and irresponsibly blowing a hole in the budget.

Michigan political junkies can see Off the Record live

The long-running weekly PBS show "Off the Record" will tape a segment live on Nov. 21 in East Lansing in front of a live audience, and the show is inviting fellow political junkies to join them for a special on the road show.

The show has been a staple on PBS stations all over Michigan since 1972, covering the governor's office, the state legislature, the political campaign trail and state government with host and longest-running Capitol Correspondent Tim Skubick. The on the road show will take a look back at the 2008 election with some of Michigan's top political pundits. The show will begin at 2:30 pm. At Michigan State University's Kellogg Center Auditorium, 55 S. Harrison Road in East Lansing, with a reception following at 5 p.m.

The program is sponsored by MSU's Michigan Political Leadership Program and the Michigan Political History Society. It will feature guests Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research and Communications, Inc.; Susan Demas, a reporter for the newsletter MIRS that covers the Capitol; Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA; Nat Ehrlich, of the Institute of Public Policy & Social Research; Bill Ballenger, editor of the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics and Coit Cook Ford III of CCF III Consulting & Associates.

The event is free and open to the public, but an RSVP is required by phone at (517) 353-1357 or by e-mail to cusickk@msu.edu.

The show airs on weekends on PBS stations beginning Friday evening. Check local TV listings in your area to see when the show airs on your local PBS station.

Political pundit predicts huge seat advantage for House Democrats next month

Michigan House Democrats will build on their 58-52 seat lead next month, according to Bill Ballanger in the latest edition of Inside Michigan Politics.

Ballanger is the editor and publisher of IMP, and the former state lawmaker and respected political pundit is going even farther on predictions he made in January and June that the Democrats will retain control of the House by an astounding margin of 70-40. Ballanger said according to a quartet of micro polls commissioned by East Lansing based Practical Political Consulting, the decision by Grampy McSame to abandon Michigan will have a negative effect on some vulnerable Democratic seats.

The Republicans went from controlling the House for more than a decade and wining one of the largest majorities in many years in 2002 to suffering the worst back-to-back election cycles since the early 1940s that culminated with the loss of the House in November 2006.

The McSame pullout is also having some positive results in the race for the U.S. House. The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report upgraded the race between Democrat Gary Peters and Joe Knollenberg to "Tossup/Tilt Democratic." The race had previously been rated “Lean Republican.” A separate poll conducted by Grove-Insight for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) shows Peters ahead of Knollenberg 46-37 percent.

The race between Democrat Mark Schauer and extremist Tim Walberg is a toss up, and a recent poll by Myers Research & Strategic Services shows the Senate Minority Leader is leading Walberg by ten points, 46 to 36 percent.

Michigan pundit says Democrats will keep control of the House in November

Bill Ballanger, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, reaffirmed the prediction he made last January that Democrats will retain control of the Michigan House in his latest newsletter.

Ballanger, a former Republican state Representative and Senator, put 52 seats in the Democratic ledger and 44 in the GOP side for the November General Election. He says six seats currently held by Democrats are rated as a toss up and eight Republican seats are listed as toss ups. Of the six toss up Democratic seats, four are held by incumbents, and incumbents are historically harder to unseat. All of the GOP toss up seats are open seats. There will be 45 open seats up for election this November.
The Republicans controlled the House for more than a decade, but in 2006 the Democrats won the House with a 58-52 majority.

Ballanger, one of the most respected pundits in the state, said in January the GOP will lose even more seats than they did in 2006. Since that time, however, we saw the budget mess and the brief government shutdown last October. A misguided recall attempt was made against Democratic lawmakers who voted to increase the state income tax and implement a sales tax – since repealed - on certain services that helped balance the budget and do away with a $1.8 billon budget deficit.

The recalls quickly fell by the wayside, and all the money and effort was redirected to recall House Speaker Andy Dillon. Despite spending $100,000 and illegally collecting signatures, that recall also failed.

Ballanger said the fragile 2008 campaign strategy to win back the House depends on thee things. The problem is two of the legs of that rickety stool have already been kicked out from under the Republicans.

Republican presidential nominee Grampy McSame will have to have some coattails, and we know that will not happen. However, that could be called a toss up, but he will be going against history. He also said the Dillon recall attempt needs to be on the ballot to draw attention to the tax vote.

Ballanger also said the GOP needs to recruit more female and minority candidates, and they failed again. There are currently only four female GOP House members, but they have recruited 28 this time. Their record on minority candidates remains abysmal. When I read this statistic, I thought it was a misprint. Here it is: there has not been a black GOP House member since 1902. That’s more than a 100 years.

Detroit News editor chosen as the most biased in Michigan mainstream media

The Michigan Messenger readers have spoken, and after a week of online voting the Big 3 of media bias are Detroit News editor Nolan Finley, radio host Frank Beckmann and Detroit Free Press reporter Dawson Bell.

We asked our readers to nominate which journalists were the most biased, and from that list we asked them to vote last week on which journalists from a list showed the most bias. This is the result. Actually, political pundit Bill Ballenger was tied with Bell for third place, but I am exercising my power as the unofficial media critic at MM to cast my tie-breaking vote for Bell. However, I will play closer attention to Ballenger.

The voter turnout was a little disappointing, but it's certainly consistent with the voter turnout we see for general elections; and it was even better than most primary elections. When you consider that only about a quarter of the registered voters actually decide who is going to run the state, the 43 votes cast in this informal poll isn't all that bad.

Finley was the big winner - or loser depending on your point of view - with 27 percent of the vote, followed by Beckman with 25 percent of the vote and Bell and Ballenger with 16 percent. Also receiving votes were Tim Skubick with three votes; George Weeks, two votes and Murray Feldman with one vote. In the comments section I also received write in votes for Chris Christoff, the Detroit Free Press Lansing bureau chief; Chad Selewski of the Macomb Daily; nationally known sports writer, best-selling author and radio host Mitch Albom; and Detroit News columnist Laura Berman.

Among the other comments I received was that I was concentrating only on conservative media bias. My answer to that is that the myth that has been floated around since the 1970s is that the media is liberally biased, but that is simply not true. I am pointing out the predominant bias of the mainstream media. An argument was also made that some of our slate of candidates are not journalists. However, anyone who conveys information to the public fits our definition of a journalist.

Finley is a columnist and the editorial page editor of the Detroit News, and as a columnist he is expressing his opinion, which by its very nature is biased. But it's clear where his bias lays. It's very hard to find bias in the newspaper's straight stories, but as the editorial page editor, it follows Finley's bias that sets the tone for the entire newspaper. Clearly, his biggest obsession is Gov. Jennifer Granholm. He seems to blame her for everything but the kidnapping of the Lindbergh baby. He must not be aware that the governor, any governor, cannot influence macroeconomic activity through the two most important factors: monetary policy and fiscal policy.

In a recent column about the governor's leadership on the budget situation, he used a quote in a column he said was from Speaker of the House Andy Dillon, D-Redford Township: "Why doesn't she take control of these negotiations?" asks Dillon, and then answered, "Because she doesn't have leadership instincts."

When called out on the source of the quote, Finley changed the online version and attributed the quote it its rightful owner; Granholm opponent, Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, R-Rochester.

According to the Detroit News official bio, Finley is the "Editorial Page Editor of The Detroit News, a position he's held since May 1, 2000. He directs the expression of the newspaper's editorial position on various national and local issues, and also writes a column in the Sunday newspaper. Prior to that, Finley was the newspaper's Deputy Managing Editor, directing the newsroom. Previously, he served as Business Editor, and in various editing positions on the city, state and metro desks. He was also a reporter, covering Detroit City Hall during the Coleman Young administration. Finley has been with the newspaper since 1976, starting as a copy boy in the newsroom while a student at Wayne State University.

Beckman hosts a show on conservative talk radio station WJR weekdays from 9-11:30 a.m., and he is an occasional columnist for the Detroit News. He shares a similar obsession with Finely for the governor while claiming he is fair and balanced and looking out for us. He seems to be a Bill O'Reilly wannabe with a rather large ego. His bias seems to fit in at WJR, and it's a mystery how the most powerful radio station in a state that has been blue since 1992 located in one of the most liberal cities in America can get way with not having one non-conservative voice on the air.

Beckman drew the ire of progressives in early October when he taped an interview with the governor for replay later in the day, and then he allegedly used a YouTube clip supplied by a conservative blog from an old debate about a completely different topic to accuse the governor of lying to the public about tax increases.

Bell covers Lansing and politics for the Detroit Free Press, and he is the only reporter on the list. Finding bias in a straight news story is difficult, but bias there can cause the most damage because it is not so obvious. Bell helped start the "ipod for every student in Michigan" controversary last spring when he mistakenly wrote in a story that House Democrats were proposing a $58 million line item to buy every student an ipod that was really for new technology. Republicans made hay with that line, and it continues today.

Ballenger is one of the most well-known and respected political pundits in the state. According to his official biography as the former Griffin Endowed Chair in American Government at Central Michigan University, Ballenger "…is a former (Republican) state representative and state senator, an ex-state racing commissioner and director of the Michigan Department of Licensing & Regulation. Mr. Ballenger also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health, Education & Welfare in the administration of President Gerald R. Ford." He also writes and publishes the newsletter "Inside Michigan Politics," and he is a regular panelist on the political talk TV show "Off the Record."

Respected political pundit predicts even bigger losses for House Republicans in 2008

Bill Ballanger, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, predicts in his most recent newsletter that Michigan House Republicans will lose even more seats in 2008 than the net loss of six seats they suffered in November.

Now, there are lots of political pundits out there that make lots of predictions, but Ballanger is one of the most respected pundits in the state who brings some impressive credentials to the table. He was a Republican state Representative and state Senator, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare under the late President Gerald Ford and he was an unsuccessful candidate for U.S. House and U.S. Senate. I once served as a panelist for a political debate where he was the moderator, and he was very knowledgeable.

The Republicans went from controlling the House for more than a decade and wining one of the largest majorities in many years in 2002 to suffering the worst back-to-back election cycles since the early 1940s that culminated with the loss of the House in November.

Open seats are always open game, even in districts that are considered likely Republican or Democrat. The election in 2008 we will see a much larger number of open seats than 2006, and of the at least 45 open seats 28 of those are in districts now held by Republicans. Ballanger predicts House Republicans will see a net-loss of at least six more seats than the six they lost in November, and House Republicans will be reduced to the least amount of seats in some 20 years.

State Republicans tying to justify the losses say it’s just the normal cycle of politics due to external forces beyond their control that happens to both parties, but Ballanger said it’s because of the Republicans ineptitude, saying “House Republicans have little identity other than gotcha game-playing and obstructionism.”

I have also heard Republican “leaders” blaming the misguided mess in Iraq for their loss of the state House, but that’s ridiculous. I worked on a House campaign in Monroe, a so-called "battle ground area.” I made hundreds of phone calls to voters and knocked on hundreds of doors, and I never once heard anyone say they were not voting for the Republicans of Iraq. Nor did I ever hear any state Democrat use Iraq as a campaign issue.

But I did hear state Democrats talk about stopping the flow of Canadian and out-of-state trash, creating jobs, helping the many people who no longer have heath care and eliminating Michigan’s drug immunity law. Those issues resonated with voters. I sincerely hope state Republicans continue to blame Iraq and politics as usual for their woes.

Now, the Iraq mess may help Democrats with voter turnout if it’s still around in 2008 when the president is at the top of the ticket, but I hope by then the uncalled for war is just a bad memory.