Democrats poised to take back traditional Democratic statewide offices

A poll conducted by Marketing Resource Group for Bill Ballanger’s Inside Michigan Politics of possible match-ups in the 2010 races for Michigan Secretary of State and Attorney General show Republican candidates having a slight lead over Democrats.

For secretary of state the poll showed Sen. Michelle McManus, R-Lake Leelanau, at 33 percent to 28 percent for House Majority Floor Leader Rep. Kathy Angerer, D-Dundee. There are three other GOP candidates for the position, and until I heard Angerer’s name mentioned, I thought Wayne State University law Professor Jocelyn Benson was the only Democratic candidate.

Benson has an excellent and impressive resume, and I think she would be a top-notch SOS, especially after six years of the most partisan SOS in Michigan history. That’s until I heard about Angerer possibly running. With zero publicity and not even a mention of her running, Angerer is just 5 percentage points behind with 37 percent undecided.

There are at least three other potential candidates for the GOP nomination, but none of them compare to Angerer or Benson. I wanted Angerer to run for Senate in the 17th District in 2010. My hometown should not have a Republicans representing it. Angerer unseated a Republican incumbent in 2004, and she can do it again.

I worked in Angerer’s House office as the world’s oldest intern. You can’t find anyone in Lansing who doesn’t respect her.

After Angerer unseated the incumbent Republican, she was a target of the Republicans in the GOP-controlled House for tow years, and Republicans refused to let her even get the simplest of resolutions passed. She spent those two years building the best constituent operation in the state and really learning the issues. In the meantime, the person she unseated spent those two years in the district campaigning and raising money. She won even bigger in 2006, along with the Democrats who took control of the House.

She has earned the respect of colleagues, opponents, staff on both sides of the aisle and House employees down to the janitorial staff. With her seat safe last November, Angerer campaigned for other House candidates, helping Democrats increase their lead by nine seats to give them 67 seats.

The same numbers played out in the poll for attorney general. Republican Bill Schuette edged out Sen. Gretchen Whitmer, D-East Lansing, 33 percent to 28 percent with 39 percent undecided. Whitmer, like Angerer, has not announced she is running. The poll did not include the other two Republicans; Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and Sen. Bruce Patterson. Bishop has been campaigning in the Senate by pandering and irresponsibly blowing a hole in the budget.

Michigan political junkies can see Off the Record live

The long-running weekly PBS show "Off the Record" will tape a segment live on Nov. 21 in East Lansing in front of a live audience, and the show is inviting fellow political junkies to join them for a special on the road show.

The show has been a staple on PBS stations all over Michigan since 1972, covering the governor's office, the state legislature, the political campaign trail and state government with host and longest-running Capitol Correspondent Tim Skubick. The on the road show will take a look back at the 2008 election with some of Michigan's top political pundits. The show will begin at 2:30 pm. At Michigan State University's Kellogg Center Auditorium, 55 S. Harrison Road in East Lansing, with a reception following at 5 p.m.

The program is sponsored by MSU's Michigan Political Leadership Program and the Michigan Political History Society. It will feature guests Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research and Communications, Inc.; Susan Demas, a reporter for the newsletter MIRS that covers the Capitol; Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA; Nat Ehrlich, of the Institute of Public Policy & Social Research; Bill Ballenger, editor of the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics and Coit Cook Ford III of CCF III Consulting & Associates.

The event is free and open to the public, but an RSVP is required by phone at (517) 353-1357 or by e-mail to cusickk@msu.edu.

The show airs on weekends on PBS stations beginning Friday evening. Check local TV listings in your area to see when the show airs on your local PBS station.

Michigan pundit says Democrats will keep control of the House in November

Bill Ballanger, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, reaffirmed the prediction he made last January that Democrats will retain control of the Michigan House in his latest newsletter.

Ballanger, a former Republican state Representative and Senator, put 52 seats in the Democratic ledger and 44 in the GOP side for the November General Election. He says six seats currently held by Democrats are rated as a toss up and eight Republican seats are listed as toss ups. Of the six toss up Democratic seats, four are held by incumbents, and incumbents are historically harder to unseat. All of the GOP toss up seats are open seats. There will be 45 open seats up for election this November.
The Republicans controlled the House for more than a decade, but in 2006 the Democrats won the House with a 58-52 majority.

Ballanger, one of the most respected pundits in the state, said in January the GOP will lose even more seats than they did in 2006. Since that time, however, we saw the budget mess and the brief government shutdown last October. A misguided recall attempt was made against Democratic lawmakers who voted to increase the state income tax and implement a sales tax – since repealed - on certain services that helped balance the budget and do away with a $1.8 billon budget deficit.

The recalls quickly fell by the wayside, and all the money and effort was redirected to recall House Speaker Andy Dillon. Despite spending $100,000 and illegally collecting signatures, that recall also failed.

Ballanger said the fragile 2008 campaign strategy to win back the House depends on thee things. The problem is two of the legs of that rickety stool have already been kicked out from under the Republicans.

Republican presidential nominee Grampy McSame will have to have some coattails, and we know that will not happen. However, that could be called a toss up, but he will be going against history. He also said the Dillon recall attempt needs to be on the ballot to draw attention to the tax vote.

Ballanger also said the GOP needs to recruit more female and minority candidates, and they failed again. There are currently only four female GOP House members, but they have recruited 28 this time. Their record on minority candidates remains abysmal. When I read this statistic, I thought it was a misprint. Here it is: there has not been a black GOP House member since 1902. That’s more than a 100 years.